Bitcoin Sell-Off Tests Strategy's Treasury Signal as Standard Chartered Holds Its Call
Bitcoin fell more than 12% in a painful week after Strategy disclosed its first sale of some holdings since 2022. Geoffrey Kendrick of Standard Chartered kept his $100,000 year-end call, while LSEG data showed more than $2 billion in net outflows from large bitcoin ETFs in the week to Tuesday. The next signal is whether Strategy buys back after a sale equal to 0.004% of its holdings.
Strategy's Sale Changes The Bitcoin Mood
Bitcoin's latest sell-off has turned Strategy's treasury behavior into a market signal for digital-asset investors.
The token dropped more than 12% during what Geoffrey Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, called a "painful" week after Michael Saylor's Strategy disclosed that it had sold some bitcoin holdings for the first time since 2022.
Kendrick kept his call for bitcoin to reach $100,000 by the end of the year, arguing that much of the selling may already be over.
He wrote that "The timing of the sale was a shame" and described the week as painful for crypto investors.
The pressure comes after bitcoin lost more than half its value from a peak in October last year.
The token had fallen about 27% so far this year, while the S&P 500 index had risen 10.4%.
ETF Outflows Put A Floor Test In Focus
Kendrick said further selling pressure could appear if bitcoin breaks below the downside level he identified.
His argument for staying constructive is that bitcoin has underperformed equities so sharply this year that fewer bullish positions may be left to unwind.
Large bitcoin exchange-traded funds are still showing stress.
LSEG data showed investors pulled more than $2 billion in net outflows from major bitcoin ETFs in the week to Tuesday, the fastest pace on record.
Kendrick framed the decline as a potential entry point, arguing that investors may later view the current price area as the buying zone they wanted if his year-end bitcoin forecast proves right.
That remains a forecast, not a settled market outcome.
Strategy's Small Sale Carries Outsized Symbolism
Strategy linked the bitcoin sale proceeds to preferred-stock distributions.
The transaction was small relative to its treasury, at 0.004% of total bitcoin holdings, while the company's bitcoin position is worth nearly $54 billion based on current prices.
The issue is less the size of the sale than what it does to investor interpretation of Strategy's role in the bitcoin cycle.
Fabien Yip, market analyst at IG Bank, said "the significance is symbolic."
Yip said the sale tests the narrative around Michael Saylor's long-standing reluctance to sell and raises questions about whether Strategy can meet preferred dividend obligations without another sale.
Strategy's stock has dropped about 17% in 2026.
The practical test is whether Strategy follows the sale with aggressive bitcoin buying, as Kendrick expects, or whether preferred-stock obligations keep the market focused on further treasury movement.
